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| Ronald Reagan and Rick Santorum |
I have refrained from writing a political article this year. Maybe it was because I have been too uncertain. Maybe because the political landscape has been too depressing. Maybe because the Internet feeds me so many interesting articles that I wonder why I should bother.
But last night's election sweep for Rick Santorum was great fun to watch. The media had already gone on mental vacation. After all, the critical state of Nevada voted on Saturday for Romney. After all, the people of Florida had already spoken. After all, the nomination was sewn up. As New Hampshire and Florida goes, so goes the nation. Romney, Romney, Romney! It is settled. Or was settled. Or should have been.
You have to win South Carolina to win the nomination and Romney was leading in South Carolina. No Republican candidate has won both Iowa and New Hamshire, and yet Romney did. And then it started unraveling. Romney WON Iowa by six votes. Then the recount showed he lost by 34 votes. Oh, that means it is a tie, the officials then said. After all, some of the precincts never sent in corrected vote counts, the officials said. So who knows who really won Iowa? Think for a minute. If those missing precinct recounts could give Romney back his landslide victory, don't you think that the Romney money machine would plow up every field in Iowa to put him back in the winner's circle? But it might cost a few million! I am sure that Romney told his fellows to watch the pennies, hold back on doing the dirt and work, and let Iowa slide.
This political year has been fun. It will be fun unless the Establishment and the Media get their way and wrap it up. "Fighting this out will only lessen our chances of winning in November." Sure, remember how John McCain's early clinching of the nomination strengthened him in November of 2008? After all, it gave him time to raise enough money to give up campaigning in Michigan in October (because it was hopeless). After all, the early end of the nomination process gave him time to carefully pick and vet a Vice Presidential candidate by late August. (And Republicans lost a month's worth of campaigning because of Gov. Palin's family issues and poor interview performance. And Palin was the most inspiring part of the McCain/Palin ticket.)
Remember how the Obama and Clinton fight which took them nearly all the way to the convention damaged Obama? He was barely able to trounce McCain. He barely was able to win traditional Republican states like Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina.
It gets down to this: Republicans--Remember North Carolina in 1976.
Ronald Reagan finally decided in late 1975 that he needed to challenge Gerald Ford for the Presidential nomination. He called Ford and told him. Ford didn't think he should challenge him. He didn't think the Democrats should challenge him either. He also didn't think the Russian Communist controlled eastern Europe. He did favor carrying out Rutherford B. Hayes' plan to end Reconstruction of the South.
Reagan lost New Hampshire by a small percentage. For some weird reason, some people voted in the Democrat primary and wrote in Reagan's name. If they had voted in the Republican primary, Reagan would have won. President Ford and the Republican Washington Insiders Establishment probably assumed that since Reagan had the odd propensity of attracting Democrat voters, then he should not be the nominee.
Reagan went on to lose more and more primaries. The systems in New York and Pennsylvania were geared toward the party power holders. Reagan didn't stand a chance. He lost in Florida by a large margin. In his birth state of Illinois, he pulled 40 percent of the votes. He was finished. His campaign was over. It was Ford, Ford, Ford.
And then came North Carolina: Jesse Helms was one of the few Republican Senators who was willing to buck the establishment and support Reagan. On election night--I still remember the news clip--Reagan won. He then began winning in primary after primary, particularly in the South and the West. He swept every delegate from Texas. He fired up the conservative, southern, cowboy, red-neck, blue collar elements in the Republican Party. ("Who are these people?" they must have been asking at the country clubs in the northeast. "Why are they jamming up our primaries with nasty votes?")
Reagan came close to winning the nomination. There were a few too many rungs in the Party establishment for Reagan to overcome, so Ford held on to the nomination. Then Ford made a wise blunder. He asked Reagan (He always called him "Ronnie") to say a few words. Reagan did and electrified the Republican convention. (According to many who were there, Republicans began having this sickening buyer's remorse over having purchased a lack-luster Ford.)
Ford did have a brilliant plan to win back the conservatives and Southerners, the cowboys and blue collar workers. He picked Robert Dole of Kansas to be his running mate. As a result, Kansas which was going to vote Republican by 60 percent of the vote in November went Republican by 61 percent of the vote.
I hate to keep talking about this group called the Establishment. It begins to sound too conspiratorial. Yet, every organization has insiders, power-holders, and an old guard. In the field of country music, the establishment is the Nashville music executives who decided years ago that country music would do better if it did not sound like country music. The Outlaws and other singers such as George Strait and Alan Jackson have begged to differ.
Yes, the Establishment rallied around the lackluster Gerald Ford. "He is a conservative," they told us. The establishment in 1980 rallied around George H.W. Bush. If they had their way, Daddy Bush would have won the nomination in 1980, lost the race to Jimmy Carter that fall, and then much else would have followed that would have kept the more radically conservative elements out of the party.
It was establishment Republicans who promoted the nominations of those two war heroes Robert Dole (in 1996) and John McCain (in 2008). After all, they reasoned, the Whig Party won elections with Presidents William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor. It seems to be ingrained in the Party Establishment that a Presidential nomination should go to the person who has patiently waited for it and hasn't rocked the Establishment vote. People are wanting something new, energetic, and outside Washington, so let's give them old Senators. Apart from abysmal speaking styles, dull minds, lackluster campaigning techniques, both Dole and McCain (and Daddy Bush in 1992) proved to the world that losing a debate (or a series of debates) to mediocre Democrat debaters takes real effort.
This political year comes along and at least 300 times already, Willard Romney has been granted the nomination. He is the only one who can, after all, defeat President Obama. After all, he ran against Teddy Kennedy and lost by nearly 20 points. After all, he understands the working man, for he has purchased factories filled with working men. He knows what it is like to start a business. Every person struggling in a little store feels like Mitt is right at his side. And Willard Mitt will attract lots and lots of Democrats and Independents. Why, every Democrat and Independent I know just loves Romney and thinks that his work on the Olympics is a model for every true American.
Why, I keep asking myself, do we have 50 plus primaries and caucuses if only 2 or 3 of them are supposed to pick a candidate?
There is much to be said for Rick Santorum. He has surprised me with every comeback and with every victory over conventional wisdom. It is not hard to pick the conservative in this race. It is not hard to decide who best represents the moral values of conservtives.
There are still overwhelming Establishment hurdles. Even Ronald Reagan felt compelled to put Establishment pawn George H.W. Bush on his ticket. I am hoping that Rick Santorum's staff, organization, and money all keep improving. Romney showed in Florida that he plays rough. If Rick Santorum ever cheated off your math assignment in high school, contact the Romney people now.
In the meantime, here is what should happen:
1. Newt Gingrich should seriously consider dropping out of the race and endorsing Santorum. Newt is smarter than the other candidates and the incumbent President. He has more and better experiences than any of them. He is the better debater. But his sins and failings past and present raise too many doubts. He did a great job derailing Romney in South Carolina, and he can pick up some support in Southern state primaries on Super Tuesday and beyond. Yet the baggage remains and the oddities of his personality and style. He could pass the mantle of Ronald Reagan on to Rick Santorum.
2. Ron Paul needs to drop out of the race and endorse Santorum. This ego-trip, this mission to the young and restless, this late-in-life fame and acclaim has to be a heady experience for a man who has had a lonely legislative career. Dr. Paul needs to look over Santorum's views and find one that he likes and support that. Beyond that, he needs to do what he can to promote his own son's Senate career. Paul has views that were racist and offensive, views that are quirky and unthinkable, views that are idealistic and impractical, and perhaps a few views that are good. But in politics you have to build coalitions and get things done. This distraction has gone on long enough.
I think the fun of this political year is just beginning.